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Friday, January 13, 2006

Taking on Tehran

39 Comments:

Blogger chouji said...

Remember, Iran is a democracy. If thats the peoples choice, all I can say is - " bad luck for the rest of the world". Pakistan, India and the other five have the muscle, so why not the rest of the world. Best of luck with the future. Bye

Saturday, January 14, 2006 12:49:00 am  
Blogger James Waterton said...

Interesting...erm...insight, there, Sunil.

How much have you thought about that sentiment?

Saturday, January 14, 2006 5:31:00 am  
Blogger Wombat said...

Yeah, what give the Iranian's the right to want an alternative source of power to fossil fuedl right James? I mean, it's not like the NPT gives the right or anything.

Saturday, January 14, 2006 6:35:00 am  
Blogger James Waterton said...

As I've said before, they forfeited their right to nuclear energy when their clandestine weapons development programme was exposed a few years ago.

Saturday, January 14, 2006 11:44:00 am  
Blogger Wombat said...

The only countries I hear talking about using nukesa re Israel and the US and yet the Iranians are called the extremists.

What's wrong with this picture?

Saturday, January 14, 2006 12:10:00 pm  
Blogger James Waterton said...

When did the USA talk about using nukes?

Saturday, January 14, 2006 12:30:00 pm  
Blogger James Waterton said...

And I'm talking about people in the administration, not pundits.

Saturday, January 14, 2006 12:33:00 pm  
Blogger Wombat said...

Former CIA agent Philip Giraldi leaked the new of plans by the Office of the VP to hit Iran's underground facilities with nukes seeing as conventional bunker busters woud not be able to penetrate that deep.

Also, the USA has not rules otu using nukes against non nuclear capable countries.

You saying that's cricket?

Saturday, January 14, 2006 12:36:00 pm  
Blogger Wombat said...

Here's a link discussin it but the Giralsi link looks broken.

http://www.justinlogan.com/justinlogancom/2005/07/what_is_the_pla.html

Saturday, January 14, 2006 12:38:00 pm  
Blogger James Waterton said...

So what you're saying is no one's publicly talking about it, but privately they are? No shit!

Come on, Addamo - didn't you expect this? Of course they make plans for possible deployment - as does every nuclear power. It's about formulating strategy. And I'm sure they also attempt to analyse potential enemy fortifications. Don't you think the Iranians are doing exactly the same thing, though utilising a different arsenal?

So I take you to task about the USA "talking" about using nukes. They patently aren't talking about it - publicly - and that's the important bit. Privately, of course they are, just like every other nuclear power does. That much is obvious.

And I doubt any nation with a nuclear weapons capacity has ruled out using those weapons against a non-nuclear power. To do so would be strategically obtuse, not to mention completely unbelievable.

Saturday, January 14, 2006 1:05:00 pm  
Blogger Wombat said...

OK James,

You got me. I have been getting slack with my arguments while you were away.

I would always regard nukes as a deterrent or last line of defense. Using them again non nuclear countries goes entirely against this logic.

If the US and Israel do strike Iran and go after the enrichment facilies underground, then does that not imply using nuclear bunker buster bombs? Conventional weapons probably arent going to do it.

I can't see ground forces being able to pull it off.

Saturday, January 14, 2006 1:14:00 pm  
Blogger leftvegdrunk said...

James, does the fiasco surrounding Pakistan's nuke program mean it has forfeited its right, too? Apparently not, because Musharref is an ally in TWAT.

As an aside, Tom Porteous' piece on Iran in the January issue of Prospect provides some useful historical and cultural context for anyone wishing to understand Iranian politics - domestic and international - at present. Have you come across it?

Saturday, January 14, 2006 2:42:00 pm  
Blogger Wombat said...

I suppose posession is 9 tenths of the law when it comes to nukes. Iran's mistake has been it's failure to produce a nuke.

Saturday, January 14, 2006 3:41:00 pm  
Blogger James Waterton said...

That's very true, Addamo.

DBO - The war on terror has thrown strategic allies and foes into sharper relief. Five years ago, the prospect of Iran with nuclear weapons wouldn't have been such an enormous concern for American strategic planners - although it would have obviously been of concern. Is that due to wreckless insouciance then or hysteria now? I suppose that it depends on your POV. You can imagine which side of the fence I would largely fall on. Regardless, the point is that timing plays a part. And alliances at a point in time also play a part. If Pakistan started to develop its nuclear capacity after 9/11 and fallen in with the Islamists rather than the USA, I imagine the US would have rather a lot to say about that, too. Happily, for US strategists, Pakistan is an ally.

No, I haven't read the article you mention.

Saturday, January 14, 2006 5:00:00 pm  
Blogger James Waterton said...

Addamo - you could very well be right about using nuclear weapons against underground installations.

I assume they would do this only if they had confirmation that Iran was indeed constructing a bomb.

Saturday, January 14, 2006 5:03:00 pm  
Blogger orang said...

Well if I was Iran, I'd get a half dozen built ASAP!!

Then write letters;

Dear Mr Bush , Mr Blair, Mr Sharon (or Prime Minister to be Named Later)

You have been talking up how you're going to kick our arse if we don't do what you tell us.
Well guess what? We don't give a shit about you or what you think of us. However, if you're thinking about coming over here and dropping bombs, or invading, or regime changing, or democratising, we will hurt you. Bad.

Yours faithfully...

Saturday, January 14, 2006 6:55:00 pm  
Blogger James Waterton said...

Sounds like sensible policy to me. Here's a response from the Americans.

Dear Iran,

We're so glad you've joined our exclusive club. Let us inform you that nuclear weapons aren't particularly useful devices in the hands of a rational actor, because the consequences of using them are so great that others assume you won't use them except in the very gravest of circumstances. Thus nukes don't provide much in the way of leverage. In the hands of a bunch of Islamic whackjobs, however, we feel nervous. Sure, now that you have a nuclear capacity, the marginal cost of invading becomes too great. Well done; you've ensured your survival - if you don't do anything stupid, that is.

Word of advice, though - don't get too bold. Don't think about furthering the Islamic cause with your arsenal. Wiping small Jewish countries off the map will not be tolerated. You have a handful of bombs. We have thousands, and our deployment technology is far superior to your own. Do you know what just one MIRV could do to Tehran? Believe us, if you lob a nuke at anyone we don't want you to (hell, this is realpolitik), we will retaliate and we have the capacity to end your nation's existence. Think about that if, when gazing at Israel, your red button finger starts getting itchy.

Smooches,

The Great Satan

Saturday, January 14, 2006 8:02:00 pm  
Blogger orang said...

Dear Great Satan,

Don't worry, we know your penchant for dropping nuclear bombs on countries who cannot strike back. We know you are cowards in your heart, and are afraid of being hurt otherwise we would not have bothered spending billions of Ryals on a worthless piece of technology. We are not afraid of your shit..bring it on.

Yours Truly,

Saturday, January 14, 2006 8:17:00 pm  
Blogger James Waterton said...

Dear Iran,

You're obviously not the shiniest star in the Arabian night (yes, I know you're not Arabs), because you don't seem to have understood a word we said in our last letter to you. Never mind. We're also going to ignore your rather dim comment about our "penchant for dropping nuclear bombs", as well as your embarrassingly childish and unsophisticated analysis of our motives. Just keep those nukes in their silos and you'll be able to hang your recalcitrant women from cranes until your heart's content.

On another matter, we have enclosed a nice green suit for your president to wear. We aren't sure if you guys have sewing machines or not, so we thought we'd give you the benefit of the doubt. Enjoy.

Love,

The Great Satan

Saturday, January 14, 2006 8:25:00 pm  
Blogger neoleftychick said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Saturday, January 14, 2006 8:27:00 pm  
Blogger orang said...

Dear Great Satan,
we did not plan on silos.
We will deliver these to you via DHL if we need to.
Or maybe get one of your morons to buy one on e-Bay and set it off when it arrives at LAX.Waaaaahaaaaa!!!!
We haven't thought of the details yet.
All we know for sure if we do get the nukes you will shit your pants.


Hugs,

Saturday, January 14, 2006 8:54:00 pm  
Blogger neoleftychick said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Saturday, January 14, 2006 10:49:00 pm  
Blogger Ibrahamav said...

From the cartoon, it appears that Iran is upset that it can not do to the Arab camel what it believes the US is doing.

In actuality, it appears that Iran wishes to take the place of Iraq on receiving "it" from the US. Just like any dog not getting the attention it feels it deserves.

Sunday, January 15, 2006 2:37:00 am  
Blogger Wombat said...

So if we listen to Bush and co, the US wants to conduct a military strike (probably with Israel's help) on Iran, because they might end up with a nuke in 5-10 years time. And as Bush tells us, a nuke capable Iran would be a destabilizing force in the region.

So, just to clarify, in one corner , we have a country that has not attacked anyone in centuries (Saddam started the fight in 1980), does not occupy any other country, who is a signatory of the NPT and has gone the extra mile by agreeing to additional restrictive measures not even part of the NPT. In the other corner, we have the US, who has been up to it’s neck in conflict for 60 years and is occupying Iraq. Also in that corner, we have Israel, a non NPT member, prone to wars and occupation, who wants to bomb Iran to prevent it becoming as destabilizing force in the region.

Don’t you love this airtight logic? Bombing Iran will provoke a retaliation, which will in turn escalate to a potential nuclear strike, which will in turn destabilizing the region.

Yeah that should solve everything.

Sunday, January 15, 2006 4:09:00 am  
Blogger Edward Mariyani-Squire said...

Addamo_01 said...

"Don’t you love this airtight logic? Bombing Iran will provoke a retaliation, which will in turn escalate to a potential nuclear strike, which will in turn destabilizing the region."

Yes, perfect logic. It kinda reminds me of: the occupation causes retailiation, which justifies the occupation, which causes retailiation, which justifies the occupation, which causes retailiation, which justifies the occupation ... [corrupt Palestinian terrorist leader drops off twig]...which causes retailiation, which justifies the occupation, which causes retailiation, which justifies the occupation, which causes retailiation, which justifies the occupation... [corrupt Israeli terrorist leader drops off twig]... which causes retailiation, which justifies the occupation, which causes retailiation, which justifies the occupation...etc.

Sunday, January 15, 2006 6:09:00 am  
Blogger Ros said...

What’s with the Israel threatening to use nukes against Iran. As they don’t admit to having them how could they make such a threat. And anyway it was Iran calling for the wiping of Israel from the map, not the other way around. For those who are interested Bolton is asking Annan for a please explain for his support of a map of the ME without Israel. Annan’s spokeperson agrees it could be a bad look for the Secretary.

It would be at least 2 years minimum before Iran could produce a bomb, half a dozen asap? How many is N Korea supposed to have built as yet. In the meantime the madman as President got elected promising economic changes. Iran’s economy is however still in trouble; it has to import 40% of fuel based products, capital is fleeing, double digit unemployment (over 30% 15-24) and probably higher amongst the non-Persians, but shortage of skills. I recall his suggestion for the problems they were having with their stock exchange was to shoot some of the traders, no specific ones just some. Their Kurds, Azerbijans, Azahris Sunnis and communists still (MEK) are all agitated and some of them are letting off bombs. The change in Iraq has added to the determination of their oppressed peoples.The current tyrants are described by some political analysts as a mafiacracy. They are certainly pushing the nationalism line much more than the Islam line currently. And hence the push AGAIN to complete the bomb.

Iran has problems, possibly is in a chaotic state so maybe in even 2 years there might emerge quite a different politic.

It seems silly to sympathise with such an awful mob just because they hate the US. The US not Bush, it is the US that they have declared the Great Satan since the revolution. Or is it that they are the most upfront, and if they get the bomb, most likely to kill hundreds of thousands of Jews in Israel.

Even Europe is getting worried, not about Israelis I would regrettfully say, rather that he could hit them and his grasp of the cost to Iran of doing that isn't obvious.

Might be time for Europe to mend its fences with the US, a US driven into isolation might say, look after yourselves.

Sunday, January 15, 2006 11:22:00 am  
Blogger Wombat said...

The MEK are letting off bombs becaue they are being encouraged to by the CIA, who are financing them. Pretty pathetic realyl seeing as the MEK is listed by the State Department as a terrorist organisation.

Gotta love the consistency.

"Or is it that they are the most upfront, and if they get the bomb, most likely to kill hundreds of thousands of Jews in Israel."

I love this. Iran has not made war with anyone, excpet Iraq, who attacked them They have not occupied anyone and while the US and Israel are keen to place great significane on Ahmadinejad's call for the end of Israel, there is a noticeable effort ignore his statement that Iran woudl not attack Irarel nor has any desire to manufacture a nuclear bomb.

"It seems silly to sympathise with such an awful mob just because they hate the US."

Actually a stupid remark in itself. Pro US and Pro Israeli suporters continue to rationalise criticism of the foreign policy of these countries as being entirely fuelled by anti-Americanism or anti-Zionism/semitism. In fact, it really just comes donwn to hypocrisy and double standards. When the Shah was in power, guys like Cheney and Rumsfled coudn't get enough of the idea of Iran have a nuclear power industry and stated that it was a wise ideai to diversify their enegy resources. Now that their puppet has been overthrown, suddely the need for nuclear power ceases to make sense.

it seems also hypicritical to criticise Iran;s economy when it has been on the receiving end of sanctions and trade blockades for so long. It's a surprise they are doign as well as they are. At the end of the day, they hold a big ace up their sleeves and along with allies like Venezuela,,could bring the US to it's knees by raisng oil prices to $100 a barrel.

Let's also be reminded that the March deadline has another significance. That's when Iran;s oil bource comes into effect, moving it's oilrevenues from US denomination to Euros.

BTW. Ros. I would be most intersted in you link whcij rverifies that "Bolton is asking Annan for a please explain for his support of a map of the ME without Israel. Annan’s spokeperson agrees it could be a bad look for the Secretary."

Bolton himself is a first grade psycopath who has a passion for bending the truth.

Sunday, January 15, 2006 12:16:00 pm  
Blogger Wombat said...

Also, it's incredible that sntiments like yours Ros are still being echoes in light of the monumental lies and decepeiton we ere fed in the lead up to the Iraq war.

How quickly some people forget:

45 minute warning
UAVs capable of dropping chemical sprays over the US
Muchroom clouds over US cities
All those houdini type WMD's
Nigere Uranium acquisitions

Some people seem destined to remain in the dark.

"Of course the people don't want war. But after all, it's the leaders of the country who determine the policy, and it's always a simple matter to drag the people along whether it's a democracy, a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism, and exposing the country to greater danger."

-- Herman Goering at the Nuremberg trials

How right he was.

Sunday, January 15, 2006 12:20:00 pm  
Blogger CB said...

Addamo,orang,DBO,Dreamboat.

First against the wall.

Sunday, January 15, 2006 6:18:00 pm  
Blogger orang said...

cb,
mate! You can save us!

ros,
it's incredible that you bother informing yourself about much of what is going on in the ME yet you shuffle the facts around and come up with a completely off the wall conclusion.

ros, imagine you live in a country that has been continually harrassed, boycotted, regime changed, and currently leading a witch hunt as well as financing a covert operations against you and making gossamer veiled threats that anytime soon you're going to get your arse kicked. Would you be upset? ...well? (no because i hate muslims and love the US & Israel)Thats the trouble with RWDB's is no imagination.

Sunday, January 15, 2006 6:58:00 pm  
Blogger neoleftychick said...

orang

They only have themselves to blame. It is time that the Israelis were left alone and for the Arabs to acknowledge that it is THEY who have caused all their own misery. All this blaming "the Jews" is too, too, too old and tired.

And really tawdry.

Sunday, January 15, 2006 7:31:00 pm  
Blogger Wombat said...

Then go back to sleep Neo.

Monday, January 16, 2006 3:15:00 am  
Blogger Ros said...

I am curious addamo, do you agree that anti-semitism is a real and live meme in our world. Even the EU thinks it is an increasing and surprisingly, nasty phenomenon. If it is a real issue, where do you think it occurs and is it a matter of concern, or are you with Ahmadinejad on this matter.

I think that the US and Israel have mentioned nuclear bombs on occasion in their criticisms. Is it your belief that they really don’t care, they are just looking for an excuse to have a go. I can understand Israel might be, they object to Hezbollah being funded and assisted by Iran to kill Israelis. Selfish of them but that’s how Jews are isn’t it. By the way are you aware whether the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (Iran) has pulled out of the Bekaa Valley when the Syrians went or are they still there with Hezbollah. If they are still there would you allow the Israelis might have some concern about Iran’s continuing actions against Israel. Some, paranoids by your standards no doubt, are concerned that it is through Hezbollah and Lebanon that Iran would get a bomb into Israel. An unfounded fear you think?

Um if Chavez and the mad mullahs get together it won’t just be US that will suffer. I wonder how you think China would react to a stopping of oil. Or as they are the good guys in the world will Iran continue to supply them. You are also obviously unaware of the oil shale reserves in the US and here for that matter. And maybe you are wishing good on us all, (I would therefore apologise for thinking you wished ill on us all), such an attack might at last drive the west away from such a dependence on oil.

You raise an interesting point re oil prices being mightily hiked or supply denied. I would imagine that China has made it very clear at SCO meetings that it won’t be done to them. But I wonder what Iran would require in return, let us have the bomb and don’t stop us from using it.

I thought of providing more info on Iran’s economic problems and mismanagement but you wouldn’t want to know I suspect.

Just google news, Annan Bolton Palestinians, plenty of news sources,

You are a better neo than I neoleftychick. I struggle to get orang’s message. Witch hunts, gossamer veiled threats? Then I have no imagination, and am a hater apparently, unlike orang.

Monday, January 16, 2006 9:13:00 am  
Blogger Antony Loewenstein said...

Chavez and the mad mullahs are getting together? Yep, there are plans to take over the Western world, people, let's prepare ourselves!

Monday, January 16, 2006 9:27:00 am  
Blogger Wombat said...

Ros,

“I am curious addamo, do you agree that anti-semitism is a real and live meme in our world. Even the EU thinks it is an increasing and surprisingly, nasty phenomenon. If it is a real issue, where do you think it occurs and is it a matter of concern, or are you with Ahmadinejad on this matter.”

Anti-Semitism is real of course, but the matter of how pervasive and dangerous it is, seems to be a matter of contention. What measure does one use for determining the degree of anti-Semitism? Is it the rise in incidents or the increase in severity of incidents? Who is measuring it?

Are they counting the fraudulent incidents when it turned out that the perpetrators of at least one incident, were Jewish?

Would you agree that there are those with vested interests in promoting the common wisdom that anti-Semitism is on the increase?

Am I with Ahmadinejad on this matter? Let me think. Hummmmmm ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh……………..NO. Tell me, why is it, given that Ahmadinejad’s comments are not the first time they have been made by Iran, is everyone behaving as though this were some revelation? I didn’t hear to many people complaining about Iran being referred to as part of the Axis of Evil? Do you agree with that? How do you think 40 million people felt hearing that?

“I think that the US and Israel have mentioned nuclear bombs on occasion in their criticisms. Is it your belief that they really don’t care, they are just looking for an excuse to have a go.”

On occasions? Are you kidding? It’s made headlines the past year. Are the US just looking for an excuse to have a go? Absolutely. If Iran has no nuclear weapons or is 5-10 years away from developing them, then what danger could they pose to anyone? The experts are saying 5-10 years, and yet we keep being warned into thinking that Iran is on the verge of nuking Israel.

CIA director, Porter Goss visited Turkey recently over possible strikes, which created diplomatic issues between the two countries. Russia has said it would defend Iran. The US last year shipped bunker buster bombs to Israel.

“I can understand Israel might be, they object to Hezbollah being funded and assisted by Iran to kill Israelis. Selfish of them but that’s how Jews are isn’t it. By the way are you aware whether the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (Iran) has pulled out of the Bekaa Valley when the Syrians went or are they still there with Hezbollah.”

If the matter is about Israel’s beef with Iran’s backing of Hezbollah, then why are they using big brother to lean on Iran? It’s not like the US have any dialogue with Iran is it?

“If they are still there would you allow the Israelis might have some concern about Iran’s continuing actions against Israel. Some, paranoids by your standards no doubt, are concerned that it is through Hezbollah and Lebanon that Iran would get a bomb into Israel. An unfounded fear you think?”

The US, Israel and the EU know that Iran has no nukes. If they were at all serious about this outcome, they would be looking to the countries that have nukes and are most likely to make them available, like Pakistan, who have a history of being wholesale merchants for nuclear components. Israel has had a beef with Hezbollah ever since they were pushed back from Lebanese territory. Yet, in spite of all of this, Pakistan continue to be given get out of jail free passes by the US.

“Um if Chavez and the mad mullahs get together it won’t just be US that will suffer.”

Get together as in cutting off oil you mean?

“I wonder how you think China would react to a stopping of oil. Or as they are the good guys in the world will Iran continue to supply them.”

No such thing as good guys, juts countries looking after their own interest.

“You are also obviously unaware of the oil shale reserves in the US and here for that matter.”

Yes, but oil companies aren’t willing to invest into viable extraction methods at this stage. Do you know who has (potentially) the second (or is it third) biggest reserves of oil? Canada. Course, those reserves are not viable at this stage because they exist within sand deposits.

“And maybe you are wishing good on us all, (I would therefore apologise for thinking you wished ill on us all), such an attack might at last drive the west away from such a dependence on oil.”

That would be agreed state of affairs no?

“You raise an interesting point re oil prices being mightily hiked or supply denied. I would imagine that China has made it very clear at SCO meetings that it won’t be done to them. But I wonder what Iran would require in return, let us have the bomb and don’t stop us from using it.”

It’s up to Iran who it sells oil to and for how much. Having China off side would hardly be desirable for the US. The dumping of 750 billon of US currency would hardly we positive outcome for the US would it? American’s don’t have a stomach for economic hardship.

“I thought of providing more info on Iran’s economic problems and mismanagement but you wouldn’t want to know I suspect.”

Not at all. Iran is far from being an economic powerhouse and I suspect that much of it has to do with lack of expertise and economic reform. Israel’s economy hasn’t always been a bed of roses either, and absent the aid they get from the US, things could have been worse for them. I do know that sanctions tend to have undesirable effects on countries.

Monday, January 16, 2006 10:24:00 am  
Blogger orang said...

Dear ros,
keep your chin up. I really do think the wankers running Iran are wankers. However, I think the best way to turn them into nice guys is by communicating in an equitable manner.

"What we have here is a failure to communicate" ...BOOM

- Paul Neuman(Cool Hand Luke)

Monday, January 16, 2006 6:20:00 pm  
Blogger Ibrahamav said...

_01 said...
I love this. Iran has not made war with anyone

Iran's sponsership of terrorism against certain nations is a declaration of war. Stop trying to spread addamo.

Tuesday, January 17, 2006 3:38:00 pm  
Blogger Wombat said...

I love this

"Iran's sponsership of terrorism against certain nations "

So when iran does it, it;s called terrorism, when the US or Israel does it, the refer to it as Black Ops, subversion, intelligence activities, regime change, pre-emptive war, brigning freedom and liberation.

Wednesday, January 18, 2006 2:09:00 am  
Blogger Ibrahamav said...

First you lie about the facts, then you try to excuse the fact that you lied.

Just another big glop of bulladdamo.

Wednesday, January 18, 2006 8:56:00 am  

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