While the over-heated debate continues over Iran, some uncomfortable facts are surfacing:
"The George W. Bush administration's adoption of a policy of threatening to use military force against Iran disregarded a series of official intelligence estimates going back many years that consistently judged Iran's fear of a U.S. attack to be a major motivating factor in its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
"Two former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) officials who were directly involved in producing CIA estimates on Iran revealed in separate interviews with IPS that the National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) on Iran have consistently portrayed its concerns about the military threat posed by the United States as a central consideration in Tehran's pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability.
"Paul Pillar, who managed the writing of all NIEs on Iran from 2000 to 2005 as the national intelligence officer for the Near East and South Asia, told IPS that all of the NIEs on Iran during that period addressed the Iranian fears of U.S. attack explicitly and related their desire for nuclear weapons to those fears."
"Two former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) officials who were directly involved in producing CIA estimates on Iran revealed in separate interviews with IPS that the National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) on Iran have consistently portrayed its concerns about the military threat posed by the United States as a central consideration in Tehran's pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability.
"Paul Pillar, who managed the writing of all NIEs on Iran from 2000 to 2005 as the national intelligence officer for the Near East and South Asia, told IPS that all of the NIEs on Iran during that period addressed the Iranian fears of U.S. attack explicitly and related their desire for nuclear weapons to those fears."
7 Comments:
Indeed a blame game: but the game is one of Antony's making.
All totalitarian regimes are paranoid and expect to be attacked. This does not have to be based in reality.
"As late as January 2003, most tfo the world didn't believe Iraq would be attacked. "
Huhhhhh..? Are you sure you were on earth at that time, Addamo?
Iran does have some useful resources, sure. However a military solution to the problem Iran has created with its dishonest nuclear dabbling is a very last resort due to the
Doesn't stop idiots like Ritter and (more amusingly) Zhirinovsky sounding off. How many times over what period of time has Ritter predicted that Iran is due for imminent invasion?
I do like the way that so many here are referencing Zhirinovsky. Classic.
Nice extrapolation there. From "most of the world" to "most of the people I talked to".
I really hope you're not a scientist.
"Just because he is getting the time frame wrong, that makes his a cook?"
Well, I guess a broken clock is right twice a day.
"He was dismissed then"
By whom? I remember many people calling for war, as well as a general expectation of war with Iraq in 2002. Your historical perspective is somewhat skewed. Don't try to paint Ritter as some kind of outspoken (but correct) maverick who predicted the Iraq war before anyone else. That's verifiable rubbish. You should know better than to try to pull that shit with me.
Well, he's such an amusing character. I find it more amusing that you've seized him as your latest pin up boy.
The last paragraph in my previous post refers to Zhirinovsky. Sorry - I must have forgotten to post the quote.
I thought in 2002 that there was a reasonable chance of war, given that Saddam was unlikely to accept the diplomatic demands placed upon him.
I personally think that the Iraq war has and will bring positive human benefits for the people of Iraq, despite the professed motivations for war of the Americans. Real outcomes are most important - this is a point lost by many. I think the Americans will eventually defeat the insurgency in Iraq, and I believe the Middle East will be in a better state by the time the Americans leave Iraq. In hindsight, I don't think the war was a good idea for the American people, despite the number of people its prosecution have assisted and will assist in the future. The Americans have expended a great deal of resources for what tangible benefits? It seems like a remarkably bad deal for them. I don't think they'll be repeating a war with such quixotic outcomes any time soon in the future.
Regarding Ritter - I don't like him because I perceive him to be a purveyor of convenient perspectives. I could be wrong regarding this - I look forward to reading his opinions in 1999. Then I shall make a final judgement on the man.
"If one dismisses the underlying theory because it gets its particular predictions wrong, then you have to dismiss every theory in economics."
Huh? The level of muddle-headedness exhibited in this quote is heroic. For starters, the primary role of economics is not to predict the future. The veracity of Ritter's "underlying theory" is based unfolding events supporting his predictions. If the predictions turn out to be incorrect, his theory is incorrect - or at best irrelevant.
"One can make the argument with respect to almost anything that it brings beneficial outcomes to mankind."
So what? Sometimes it's a justifiable argument and sometimes it isn't.
Ostensibly, what you've just said in your last comment sounds terribly clever. Scratch the millimetre-thick veneer and it dissolves into a vacuous, meaningless non-event.
Edward - you do that, squire, you do that. Why'd you pick on Friedman, anyway? I bet I know why - he's the only laissez-faire economist you've heard of, right?
What are the primary functions of economics? Explain to me how and where Milton Friedman (a man whose writings I'm pretty well versed in) suggested that the primary role of economics was to predict the future.
Go back to your pretentious Socratic delusions of grandeur...gadfly *chortle* You remind me of a schoolboy who takes himself oh-so-terribly seriously - hell, I've certainly been there done that - difference is that I grew out of it eight years ago. You're a further eight years older than me and you're still in the thick of it. Tragic, but if it helps you sleep at night...
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